For the first time since October 2020, Germany’s nationwide seven-day coronavirus incidence rate has fallen below the crucial value of 50 new infections per 100.000 people.

Incidence rate in Germany falls to 46,8

According to the latest data from the Robert Koch Institute, health authorities in Germany reported 2.626 new cases of coronavirus in the 24 hours to Wednesday morning. A week ago, 11.040 infections were recorded. 

The seven-day incidence rate has therefore fallen to 46,8, down from 58,4 the previous day and 72,8 the previous week. Throughout February, the incidence rate was hovering just above the 50-mark, before a third wave of infections sent it racing up again. It has been steadily dropping since the end of April. The last time the incidence rate was below 50 was on October 20, 2020. 

The German federal government uses the incidence rate as a key measure of how the pandemic is developing, and previously insisted that coronavirus restrictions could not be relaxed until the value fell below 50. 

Scientists: Pandemic not over yet

According to scientists, there are a number of reasons behind the current decline in the infection rate: not just the increased pace of vaccinations, but the warmer weather, the widespread use of rapid tests in schools, at work and in leisure activities, natural immunisation via prior infections, reduced operations at schools and universities, and the restrictions on larger group activities. 

However, the current data could present a skewed picture, because the recent long weekend - and the several public holidays we’ve had in the past few weeks - mean that fewer people get tested, and also cause delays in reporting the results of the tests that were carried out. 

To that end, virologists are warning that it is still too early to give the all-clear. They are calling for slow, gradual openings: “Giving the all-clear too early can result in corona no longer being taken seriously and the numbers rising again,” said virologist Friedemann Weber from the University of Giessen.