German coalition risks crisis with trial vote on pensions

Germany’s CDU/CSU-SPD government will put its pension reform to a trial vote on December 2. If it doesn’t go through the coalition risks an internal crisis.

Germany holds trial vote on pension plan

On Tuesday afternoon, members of the German parliament will take part in a trial vote on the CDU/CSU-SPD coalition’s pension reform. The details of the reform have prompted CDU infighting, with some saying a failure to pass the reform in the trial vote may throw the government into crisis.

Friction began when 18 members of parliament involved in the CDU/CSU youth group, Junge Union (JU), criticised Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s planned reform, saying it was insufficient and would defer demographic problems to younger generations of Germans. 

Under the existing plan, the pension level (Rentenniveau) will remain at 48 percent until 2031. The Rentenniveau is the percentage to which pensions relate to average German salaries. You can read more about the details of the reform in our article, How is Germany planning to reform its ailing pension system?

With a small majority of 12 votes in the Bundestag, Merz is particularly dependent on his party’s support. In an attempt to appease JU members, the chancellor announced the reform would have an “accompanying text” addressing JU’s concerns.

However, on December 1, JU members maintained that they wouldn’t support Merz’s reform. “As a youth group we believe it is not possible to vote for the pension reform. It will stay that way,” a short announcement read, according to a report by Tagesschau.

One possible outcome is that part of the JU dissident group rejects the reform and another part accepts the reform, so as to keep the party, and by extension the coalition, from slipping into crisis.

Pension reform will go to “real” vote on Friday

If Merz’s reform passes the trial vote, a deciding Bundestag vote will take place on Friday, December 5. If the reform passes in the Bundestag, it will head to a vote in the Bundesrat - which represents Germany’s 16 federal states - on December 19. The reform would then come into effect on January 1, 2026.

The Christmas holidays and New Year will be much more stressful for Merz if things go the other way in the trial vote or in the Bundestag vote on Friday. According to an analysis published in Rheinische Post, “If there is no majority for the law in the Bundestag in December, Merz could already face a vote of confidence after only a good six months in office.”