German distributors have warned that the price of ground coffee may go up by at least 30 percent in 2025, with even greater price increases forecast for organic and fair trade coffee.
The cost of coffee has risen by 70 percent since the beginning of 2024, according to the New York Mercantile Exchange. Now, coffee distributors in Germany warn that a considerable price shock will hit consumers by 2025.
“A price shock is coming,” Johannes Dengler of Dallmayr, one of Germany’s most common coffee distributors, told the Welt newspaper. If the raw coffee market remains as volatile as it is currently, Dengler predicts that prices may soon reach 350 US cents per pound (0,45 kilograms).
Coffee farmers in Brazil and Vietnam, Germany’s biggest coffee exporters, have seen harvests drop by 20 percent in the past four years due to changing weather. An increased demand in Asia and the Americas is another contributor to the coffee price explosion.
Meanwhile, 2022 figures from the German Coffee Association suggest that Germans are drinking more java than ever before, with the average resident drinking four cups per day.
In Germany, it is currently possible to buy a 500-gram packet of coffee for 5 euros, or even slightly less, at discount supermarkets. However, more expensive brands and coffee at more expensive supermarkets may cost upwards of 7 euros for the same amount. In fact, coffee is one of the few products which is cheaper in Switzerland than in Germany.
According to FOCUS magazine, German consumers will see coffee prices increase by at least 30 percent in 2025. The magazine predicts that a cheap 500-gram packet of coffee will increase from 5 euros to 6,50 euros. Organic and fair trade beans may see a price increase of at least 50 percent.
By the cup, consumers can expect to pay around 20 cents more in their local cafe. This would bring the average cost of a cappuccino or a German “Milchkaffee” to around four euros per cup.
Coffee producers aren’t alone in the challenges they face. Climate change is also affecting Germany’s domestic crops and local beverage production.
A 2023 study led by the Global Change Research Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences found that Germany’s declining hop yield means German beer will likely get more expensive and taste worse.
Researchers who conducted the study predict that hop yields in Europe will decline by between 4 and 15 percent by 2050, unless farmers adapt their practices to long spells of hot and dry weather.
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