A recent study has revealed that Germany could be home to almost 86 million people by 2030. This influx of people will have several lasting effects on German society, as more skilled workers find their way to the federal republic.
By 2030, Germany will have almost 86 million inhabitants, according to the current Germany Monitor by Deutsche Bank Research. Germany is currently experiencing a record influx of people, with Deutsche Bank Research expecting around 1,3 million refugees from Ukraine due to the war with Russia.
To put that into context, last year around 329.000 people came to Germany, mainly refugees from Syria and Afghanistan. Next year, the analysts expect around 260.000 Ukrainians to make their way to Germany.
This influx of people has led to a forecast of 84,9 million people in 2022, up from 83,3 million in 2021. By 2023, 85,4 million people are expected to be living in Germany. The study explains that the recent influx of people is higher than the European migrant crisis in 2015, in fact, only the immigration levels following the Second World War are higher than the current influx.
The study by Deutsche Bank Research also examined the consequences of the current immigration to Germany. The main effect, according to the analysts at Deutsche Bank Research, is increased pressure on the housing market. There are 2 million empty apartments across Germany, but most of them are outside of major German cities and metropolitan areas, which is where refugees usually end up.
Germany would also find it harder to attain its CO2 targets, since emission levels tend to increase as refugees move into Germany. This is especially true when refugees come from countries with a lower standard of living, where they have less of an impact on the climate and the environment.
On a positive note, Ukrainian refugees are relatively well educated, and can help to fill the shortage of skilled workers in Germany. This, according to the study, will help to alleviate some of the negative effects of Germany’s ageing society. Refugees also often have a positive effect on the economy, as consumption increases.