Germany is shrinking, but Berlin & other major cities keep growing

Germany's population could shrink to around 81,8 million by 2045, according to a new study. While many regions are expected to lose residents, cities including Berlin, Munich and Leipzig could continue growing.

More than two-thirds of German regions could lose population

A study by the Berlin Institute for Population and Development, conducted with the Wüstenrot Foundation, predicts that Germany's population will fall from approximately 83,5 million in 2025 to 81,8 million by 2045.

Researchers examined all 400 German districts and independent cities, finding that more than two-thirds could lose residents. These include 184 regions that experienced population growth between 2014 and 2024.

The decline is largely driven by falling birth rates and an ageing population, with immigration increasingly determining whether individual regions grow or shrink.

Berlin & other major cities expected to grow

Despite the nationwide decline, Berlin's population is projected to grow between 2025 and 2045, according to Deutsche Welle. Hamburg, Frankfurt, Munich, Düsseldorf, Leipzig, Dresden and Potsdam are also expected to attract more residents.

However, some eastern regions face particularly steep declines. The study predicts that Suhl in Thuringia could lose around 30 percent of its population, while Dahme-Spreewald, near Berlin, could grow by approximately 17 percent.

Researchers say regions offering attractive jobs, reliable childcare and good transport connections are better positioned to attract new residents.

Germany's shrinking workforce poses challenges

Germany's working-age population is expected to decline by 4,7 percent by 2045 as more people retire and fewer young workers enter the labour market.

The study found that economically stronger regions have higher employment rates among older people and people without German citizenship. Competition for skilled workers is expected to become increasingly important.

For internationals considering working in Germany, the findings highlight the growing differences between regional job markets and the importance of local infrastructure when choosing where to settle.