2015 refugees are well integrated into German labour market, says study

10 years after Angela Merkel told Germany “Wir schaffen das”, a new study has concluded that those who arrived in Germany as refugees in 2015 are now generally well integrated into the labour market.

IAB: Refugees who arrived in 2015 are well integrated into labour market

A study by the Institute for Labour Market and Occupational Research (IAB) at the German Federal Employment Agency has concluded that from a labour market perspective, Germany has done well to integrate refugees who arrived in the country in 2015.

The study was published to mark 10 years since Angela Merkel’s decision to open Germany’s borders and allow refugees stuck in Hungary to enter the federal republic. In August 2015, Merkel famously attempted to quell criticism of her decision, telling a busy Bundestag press conference, “I say quite simply: Germany is a strong country. The central theme with which we approach these things must be: We have achieved so much – we can handle it”. 

There is now a 76 percent employment rate among men who arrived as refugees in Germany in 2015, compared to the overall national average employment rate of 70 percent. But there is a significant gender disparity. Only 35 percent of women who arrived in 2015 are working, bringing the average employment rate among those who arrived in 2015 down to 64 percent.

What are the most common jobs for those who arrived in 2015?

People who arrived in Germany as refugees in 2015 are “often working in bottleneck or system-relevant jobs”, the study found. The most common jobs among men are in transportation and logistics, manufacturing and manufacturing technology, and food and hospitality. Among women, the most common fields are medicine and healthcare, retail, food and hospitality, and social and cultural services.

The study found that the median income level of full-time employed people who arrived as refugees in 2015 was 70 percent of the median income level of all full-time employees in Germany in 2024. This is only slightly above the 66 percent threshold, below which a worker is considered to be receiving low pay.

Germany made an error by disproportionately placing newly-arrived refugees in economically weak regions with high unemployment, the study concluded. However, speaking to Handelsblatt, author Herbert Brückner said, “Together with Norway, [Germany is] quite far ahead – and significantly better than Denmark, the Netherlands, and Italy,” in its effort to integrate people into the labour market.

Merkel would make the same decision, but admits AfD benefited

Speaking in an interview with ZDF, broadcast in the documentary Merkels Erbe – 10 Jahre "Wir schaffen das!" (Merkel’s legacy - 10 years “We can handle it!”), the ex-chancellor said she was in “no doubt” that she would make the same decision today, to welcome refugees into Germany.

Founded in 2013, the years following 2015 have seen support for the far-right AfD party grow from 4,7 percent to 20,8 percent over four federal elections. Merkel told ZDF that her decision had polarised Germany, “the AfD certainly became stronger because of it. But is that a reason for me not to do something that I consider important, right, reasonable, and humane?” 

The retired politician called for a more united European approach to migration politics: “When Europe is divided on refugee politics, on migration politics, then we have a big problem, because we need a strong, united Europe. [...] It's a process, but we've achieved a lot so far, and what still needs to be done must continue to be done.”