AfD polling at record-high 41% ahead of Saxony-Anhalt election

The AfD is polling at around 41 percent in Saxony-Anhalt, a record result for the far-right party ahead of state elections in September. If they win, what do they want to do?

MDR poll shows record-high support for AfD

According to an Infratest Dimap survey, the AfD is polling at 41 percent in the eastern federal state of Saxony-Anhalt. In second place, the centre-right CDU is polling at just 26 percent, followed by the Left Party with 12 percent.

The SPD is polling at a low 7 percent, while the BSW and Greens take 4 percent each. The survey outcome varied slightly when respondents were asked about their preferred candidate for state premier rather than which party they supported.

36 percent of respondents said they would prefer CDU candidate Sven Schulze to retain the role, compared to the 32 percent who favour AfD candidate Ulrich Siegmund. 

Why is the Saxony-Anhalt election important?

Saxony-Anhalt and Thuringia are the federal states with the highest support for the AfD in the country. In the September 2024 state elections, the far-right party lost to the CDU in Saxony-Anhalt but won with 32,8 percent in Thuringia. The win marked the first time a far-right party has won a state election in Germany since the Second World War.

What happened in Thuringia in 2024 tells us a little bit about what might happen in Saxony-Anhalt if the AfD wins the state election this September.

The State Office for the Protection of the Constitution classifies the Thuringian AfD as a right-wing extremist organisation, and its leader, Bjorn Höcke, has been found guilty of using Nazi slogans.

Following the AfD’s Thuringia win, other parties followed the firewall (Brandmauer) principle and refused to form a coalition with the far-right party on the grounds that it poses a threat to Germany’s constitutional democracy. Instead, the CDU, SPD and BSW formed a coalition. 

In Saxony-Anhalt in 2026, the AfD’s goal is to win 50 percent of the vote needed for an absolute majority. Whether they can muster up the extra 9 percent needed by September remains to be seen.

For now, the incumbent state premier, Schulze, is attributing the AfD’s surge in popularity in Saxony-Anhalt to nationwide dissatisfaction with the CDU-led federal coalition. In early April, support for Chancellor Friedrich Merz plunged to just 15 percent.

What does the AfD want to do in Saxony-Anhalt?

So if the AfD wins in Saxony-Anhalt, the Brandmauer overton window is shifted further and parties agree to an AfD coalition, or the far-right party wins an absolute majority, what do they want to do with their power?

Speaking to Deutsche Welle, the deputy parliamentary group leader of the AfD in Saxony-Anhalt, Hans-Thomas Tillschneider, did not mince his words. Tillschneider believes that projects which support democracy are “indoctrination programmes” and should be defunded.

Tillschneider said the party would take inspiration from US President Donald Trump and outgoing Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. The parliamentary group leader added that a “deportation offensive” and “remigration of millions” would be top of the agenda.

"I assume that an AfD in government would further establish and professionalise its radicalism," Matthias Quent, from the Institute for Democratic Culture at Magdeburg-Stendal University, told the broadcaster.

If the party succeeds in challenging democratic values in Saxony-Anhalt, David Begrich of the association Miteinander (Together) believes it would then set its sights on the federal government. 

At the federal level, the party’s 2025 “Manifesto for Germany” included lower income taxes and higher tax relief for capital gains, as well as abolishing CO2, real estate, and inheritance taxes.

To tackle the rental crisis, the party plans to increase the number of property owners in Germany, introduce a law giving “native Germans” priority for housing, increase housing benefit (Wohngeld) payments, and rule out any form of rent regulation.

The party’s manifesto also promised to “dissolve the Federal Labour Agency”, reduce unemployment benefits, and increase the age of retirement to 70.