Homelessness in Berlin forecast to increase by 60 percent by 2029

The Berlin Senate expects the number of people experiencing homelessness in the city to increase by 60 percent by 2029 - unless something is done to help those at risk.

Significantly more Berliners likely to become homeless

Berlin’s Department for Social Affairs predicts that the number of people experiencing homelessness in the German capital will increase by 60 percent by 2029, unless something is done.

The Senate estimates that there were just under 26.000 people experiencing homelessness in Berlin in 2022. In 2025, the figure has increased to 53.600 and is expected to grow to 85.600 by 2029, unless local and federal governments implement policies to help people at risk.

These statistics include people in homeless shelters, hostels or emergency accommodation, but not those experiencing so-called “hidden homelessness” who may be temporarily staying with family and friends, or people living on the street.

When the definition of homelessness is expanded to include people living in city-run refugee centres, there could be as many as 115.000 people experiencing homelessness in Berlin by 2029.

Why are there more homeless people in Berlin?

Berlin’s Department for Social Affairs at the Senate only began officially recording and estimating the number of homeless people in the city in 2022.

With Germany facing the worst housing shortage in 20 years, a rent brake law which only covers certain groups, and higher living costs, affordable housing is increasingly hard to come by in Berlin, even for those of average or higher incomes. 

When entering the Bundestag in 2021, Germany’s previous SPD-FDP-Greens coalition declared it would attempt to end homelessness in the federal republic by 2030. The government adopted an action plan in spring 2024, but collapsed by the autumn. According to a report from the federal government, around half a million people in Germany are homeless in 2025.

Entering the Bundestag in May 2025, the new CDU-SPD coalition made the same promise and announced the Housing-First-Projekte. However, without significant structural changes to prevent tenants from being evicted and becoming homeless, or to obligate landlords to rent properties that have been left vacant to accrue value, experts doubt the current plan will be effective.