Who is leaving Germany in its “triple migration turnaround"?

According to a report from the German Economic Institute, the federal republic is experiencing a “triple migration turnaround”. Who is coming, who is leaving, and what does it mean for the German economy? 

Lowest net migration since 2010

The German Economic Institute (IW) has analysed figures from the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) to compile a new study on migration patterns in the federal republic.

The study found that net migration is down from 663.000 people in 2023 to 235.000 people in 2025. This is the lowest net migration figure since 2010, excluding the years during the coronavirus pandemic.

Who is coming and who is going?

Taking a closer look at who is coming to Germany and who is leaving, the IW claims that Germany is experiencing a “triple migration turnaround”. This means that three migration trends that previously significantly shaped migration in Germany are shifting.

The first of these three turnarounds is that fewer people are coming to Germany as refugees. According to Destatis, 329.000 people applied for asylum in Germany in 2023, compared to just 113.000 people in 2025.

The IW says this shift can be attributed to the fact that the German government has made it harder for people to claim asylum (e.g. people from Afghanistan or Ukraine) and that circumstances have changed in several countries where many people were emigrating to Germany, e.g. Syria.

The second of the three turnarounds is EU workers leaving Germany. According to Destatis, in 2023, roughly 42.000 EU citizens moved to Germany to work. By 2025, this figure was almost the inverse, with around 45.000 EU citizens leaving Germany. 

According to the IW’s forecast, this trend is likely to continue, as ageing nationals of newer EU states, e.g. Romania or Bulgaria, return to their country of origin.

The final of the “three turnarounds” is more German citizens leaving Germany. In 2023, around 74.000 German citizens left the federal republic to live in another country; by 2025 this had increased to 97.000 people.

What does it mean for the German economy?

So what do all of these figures mean for the future of the German economy? While the study found an overall slowdown in migration, migration linked to skilled work is stable. Between 2023 and 2025, the portion of residence permits issued in connection with a job increased from 13,6 percent to 15,6 percent.

But the IW warned that Germany should not get complacent. According to another recent IW study, with low birth rates and baby boomers moving into retirement, Germany will be short of 4,3 million people of working age by 2036. And these jobs won't just be in skilled work.

Keeping a balance between the working-age population and the retirement-age population is important because this balance underpins the German social security system. For example, it is pension contributions made by the current working-age population that fund the pensions of the current retired population.

The IW said that the German government should not assume that migration connected to skilled labour would continue to increase. This is in part because the “traditional source countries” are also facing their own demographic pressures.

Birth rates have been declining worldwide in recent centuries. At the end of the 20th century and the beginning of the 21st century, rates actually stabilised in high- and middle-income countries, but this stabilisation gave way to a decline around 15 years ago.

In May and early June, two new studies suggested, for the first time, a strong link between consistent mobile phone and social media use and declining global birth rates. According to researchers, this is simply because much of the time we previously spent socialising and building sexual relationships is now spent online.