A new study from the University of Mannheim has found that low-income tenants are more likely to support the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party if they live in regions with rising rents.
According to a new study by the Centre for European Social Studies (MZES) at the University of Mannheim, Baden-Württemberg, low-income residents in German cities are more likely to support the AfD if they live in areas with fast-rising rents.
Carried out in partnership with the University of Oxford and the University of Zurich, the study found that if the average rent in a low-income tenant's local area increases by at least one euro per square metre (sqm), they are 4 percentage points more likely to voice support for the AfD when taking part in a survey.
Between 2022 and 2024, the average rent per sqm for both existing properties and new builds rose by at least a euro in Berlin, Cologne, Düsseldorf, Frankfurt, Hamburg, Munich and Stuttgart, according to ImmoScout24. The biggest average rise was seen in Cologne, where the rent per sqm for a new build increased from 12,88 euros in 2022 to 16,75 euros in 2024.
The MZES found that rising average rents have the opposite effect on the political allegiances of high-income residents and landlords living in the same areas. “When rents rise, some people profit from the reevaluation processes. Others, however, perceive these developments as a socioeconomic threat. The latter are increasingly leaning towards the AfD,” study author Denis Cohen explained in a press release.
The MZES explained that low-income residents are more likely to voice support for the AfD, even if they are not directly affected by rising average rents, for example, if they live in social housing or have an old tenancy contract. “They perceive rising rents [...] as a latent threat towards their socioeconomic status,” Cohen explained.
“Parties on the radical, right-wing spectrum benefit from the resulting fears of social decline,” Cohen continued, “This pattern is well known and is consistent with the results of numerous other studies”.
Germany is both the EU country where the highest percentage of the population are renters (52,4 percent in 2023, according to the Federal Statistical Office) and the EU country where tenants pay the third-highest share of their wages to landlords.
A 2024 study by the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) also found that the number of tenants spending more than 40 percent of their income on rent has nearly tripled since the early 1990s, from 5 percent to 14 percent.
Despite this, politicians' plans for managing Germany’s worst housing shortage in 20 years and spiralling rents have been largely absent from public discourse leading up to the federal election on February 23. Immigration crackdowns, Trump and Ukraine have remained the central topics.
To find out more about what the main parties have pledged, read our article How do German politicians want to tackle the rental crisis?
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