Just as Germany takes its first hesitant steps out of lockdown, new figures show that the coronavirus reproduction rate has increased. The Robert Koch Institute (RKI) has repeatedly emphasised that the pandemic will only subside if this key figure is less than one. 

Coronavirus reproduction rate in Germany rises to 1

The rate of coronavirus infections has risen again in Germany, according to the latest figures released by the RKI. According to statistics published late on Monday evening, each infected person in Germany is now infecting one other person, meaning that the so-called reproductive rate is 1,0 - and that the number of new cases is not falling as quickly as it has over the past few days. 

At the beginning of March, the infection rate in Germany was 3,0. By April 8, authorities had succeeded in pulling this figure down to 1,3. By the time the federal government and states first agreed on a gradual loosening of lockdown measures, it had settled around the 0,9 mark, but began to rise again last week. 

Infection rate must fall below 1 for pandemic to subside

The RKI has repeatedly emphasised that, for the coronavirus outbreak in Germany to subside, the infection rate needs to be less than one. This was also stressed by Angela Merkel as she warned against relaxing restrictions too quickly in a speech last week: “The curve has got flatter,” she said, “but it still has to be in a shape that doesn’t overburden our health system.”

“Even if we assume that one person infects 1,1 others, we would reach the limits of what our health system and intensive care beds can manage in October,” she said. “If we assume a rate of 1,2… we would reach the health system’s limit in July. And with a rate of 1,3 we would get there in June.” 

According to the latest RKI figures, the number of infections in Germany rose by 1.144 on Monday, to a total of 156.337. The mortality rate has also slowly risen, reaching 3,8 percent on Tuesday.